Explainer: What Is El Niño, and How Could It Affect Nigerians?
As concerns grow over changing weather patterns, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event in 2026, warning of possible implications for rainfall patterns and climate conditions.
The development has drawn attention to a natural climate phenomenon that originates thousands of kilometres away from Nigeria but can influence weather conditions across different parts of the world.
In its August 2026 climate update, NiMet said observations of ocean conditions confirmed the onset of El Niño, which it expected to continue intensifying during the August-to-October period.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in an update published on September 3, also reported that El Niño was firmly established and expected to strengthen further, increasing the risks of extreme weather in different parts of the world.
But what exactly is El Niño, how could it affect Nigeria, and what should Nigerians know as the phenomenon develops?
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
It is part of a larger climate pattern known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
During El Niño, changes in ocean temperatures influence atmospheric circulation, affecting rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.
Although the phenomenon originates in the Pacific Ocean, its influence can extend to other regions, including parts of Africa.
However, its effects are not identical everywhere. Local geography, seasonal weather systems and conditions in other oceans can influence how individual countries experience the phenomenon.
The WMO has also clarified that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, although the two can interact in ways that influence temperature and other climate impacts.
Why Is El Niño Attracting Attention in 2026?
The current event has attracted attention because international climate monitoring agencies have reported that it is strengthening.
In its October 8 global seasonal climate update, the WMO said forecast models indicated further intensification during October, November and December 2026, with the warming trend expected to peak around December.
The organisation’s September update had also projected an almost certain likelihood that El Niño would persist through February 2027.
These forecasts indicate that the event could influence global weather patterns for several more months. However, the strength of the phenomenon alone does not determine the severity of its effects in every country.
For Nigeria, the important question is how the changing global climate conditions could interact with the country’s seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
What Does El Niño Mean for Nigeria?
NiMet’s August 2026 update confirmed the onset of El Niño and highlighted its potential influence on climate conditions.
The agency’s August-to-October rainfall forecast also outlined differences in expected rainfall across Nigerian states, indicating that the possible effects should not be treated as uniform nationwide.
The forecast identified the potential for wetter-than-normal conditions in several northern states, including Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi and Jigawa.
It also indicated the possibility of drier-than-normal conditions in parts of southern Nigeria, including Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Edo and Delta, as well as Kogi and parts of Benue State.
NiMet expected normal to above-normal rainfall in northern areas, while rainfall totals in the South-West and Cross River State were forecast to range from normal to below normal. Much of the remaining country was expected to experience normal rainfall.
These are seasonal forecasts, not guarantees of the weather that will occur in every community. They nevertheless highlight the importance of monitoring location-specific forecasts as conditions change.
1. Agriculture and Food Production
One area where changing rainfall patterns could have consequences is agriculture.
Many Nigerian farmers depend on seasonal rainfall to determine when to plant, how to manage their crops and when to expect harvests.
If rainfall is lower than expected, crops may not receive sufficient moisture for healthy growth. Dry spells at critical stages of crop development can also affect yields.
On the other hand, excessive rainfall can contribute to waterlogging, flooding and damage to farmland.
In its 2026 climate guidance, NiMet highlighted agricultural risks associated with rainfall variations and advised farmers to follow relevant weather and agricultural advisories.
The agency also recommended measures such as keeping drainage channels clear in areas expecting heavy rainfall and applying fertiliser after effective rainfall rather than during dry spells.
However, it is important to distinguish potential risks from confirmed outcomes. The existence of El Niño does not, by itself, establish that Nigerian farmers have suffered widespread crop losses or that food prices will rise as a direct result.
Any claim of actual agricultural losses would require evidence from affected farmers, agricultural authorities or relevant field assessments.
2. Heat and Public Health
High temperatures can pose health risks, particularly when people are exposed to excessive heat for prolonged periods.
Children, older people, outdoor workers and people without access to cool environments may be particularly vulnerable to heat-related illness.
Potential warning signs include heavy sweating, dizziness, weakness, headache and nausea. Severe symptoms, including confusion, collapse or loss of consciousness, require urgent medical attention.
El Niño can influence temperature patterns globally, but it would be inaccurate to attribute every hot day in Nigeria directly to the phenomenon.
Nigeria’s actual temperature conditions must be assessed using local observations and forecasts.
Residents can take sensible precautions during periods of intense heat by drinking water regularly, reducing strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day and seeking shade or cooler environments when possible.
Anyone experiencing signs of severe heat-related illness should seek urgent medical assistance.
3. Water Supply and Electricity
Changes in rainfall can also affect water resources.
When rainfall is insufficient over a sustained period, water levels in rivers, reservoirs and dams may decline. This can create challenges for communities, farmers and industries that depend on these sources.
Reduced water inflows can also affect hydropower generation, depending on the conditions at individual dams and power stations.
These are possible consequences of prolonged rainfall shortages, rather than evidence that El Niño has already caused a nationwide water shortage or electricity crisis.
The extent of any impact would depend on rainfall in the affected catchment areas, existing water reserves, water management practices and the country’s electricity generation mix.
Monitoring rainfall and reservoir conditions is therefore important for assessing whether these risks are developing in particular locations.
4. Rainfall Changes and Flood Risks
Although El Niño is frequently associated with drought in some parts of the world, it does not mean that every affected country will experience a lack of rainfall.
The phenomenon can shift rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of drier conditions in some locations and wetter conditions in others.
This distinction matters for Nigeria, where climate conditions vary across geographical regions.
NiMet’s August-to-October forecast, for example, identified the possibility of above-normal rainfall in several northern states while some southern areas were expected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.
Wetter conditions can increase flood risks in susceptible locations, especially where rainfall is intense and drainage systems are inadequate. Drier conditions, meanwhile, can create challenges for agriculture and water supply.
However, flood warnings and drought assessments must be based on the specific conditions forecast for each location. El Niño alone cannot establish that a particular community will experience either disaster.
What Should Nigerians Do?
As the climate phenomenon develops, Nigerians should pay attention to official forecasts rather than rely on unverified social media claims.
Farmers should consult agricultural extension officers and follow NiMet’s updated guidance on rainfall, planting schedules and crop management.
Residents should also follow weather warnings issued for their communities, particularly where flooding, prolonged dry spells or unusually high temperatures are expected.
Government agencies responsible for agriculture, water resources, health and emergency management should use relevant climate information to support planning and preparedness.
NiMet’s seasonal climate predictions provide information on rainfall, temperature, dry spells and other variables relevant to agriculture, water management, health and disaster preparedness.
The agency’s forecasts are therefore an important resource for assessing how changing climate conditions could affect different parts of Nigeria.
The Facts Nigerians Should Remember
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that begins with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
International climate agencies reported in 2026 that the event was strengthening, with the WMO projecting that it would persist into early 2027.
Nigeria could experience consequences through changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, with possible implications for agriculture, water resources, health and other weather-sensitive sectors.
However, the effects will not necessarily be the same across all states, and the presence of El Niño does not automatically mean nationwide drought, extreme heat, flooding or food shortages.
The most reliable way to understand the risks is to combine international climate monitoring with Nigeria-specific forecasts and evidence from affected communities.
For Nigerians, the message is straightforward: understand the phenomenon, follow official weather updates and prepare according to the risks identified for each location.
